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Recording - Quantifying the “Qualitative”: Assigning Confidence Levels to Low-Probability Events

Process Safety makes numerous calculations related to the likelihood of rare events, including for example SIL calculations, LOPA analysis, and risk-based facility siting frequencies. But how correct are these calculations? If something goes wrong, does this mean the calculation is wrong? If nothing goes wrong, does this mean the calculation is correct? To answer these and related questions, this webinar will introduce a two centuries-old technique that was the original interpretation of probability as uncertainty related to our lack of knowledge about a potential event. And more importantly, how to update this probability as new evidence is obtained. Find out how to use this simple rule to gain insight to help answer some of the most difficult questions facing Process Safety professionals today. - Presented by Dave Grattan

Read more on the Bayes Rule:

Reverend Bayes, meet Process Safety-Use Bayes’ Theorem to establish site specific confidence in LOPA

Does your facility have the flu? Use Bayes rule to treat the problem instead of the symptom


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